Thankful-Match
0xa8ca613284f2c8c8c1a3421ee93dc5e7c580e96d
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$21.88
Total PnL
$-377.55
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
8 shares @ 55.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$8.39
$3.74
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
133 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.33
$-12.67
- YES
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
6 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$6.15
$2.15
- ROMAN ANDRES BURRUCHAGA
Miami Open, Qualification: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery
33210 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-33.21
- MAGIC
Magic vs. Hawks
20112 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-67.80
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- VICTORIA JIMENEZ KASINTSEVA
Miami Open, Qualification: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- EKATERINE GORGODZE
Miami Open, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Talia Gibson
10900 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.90
- ITALY
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela
7206 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-15.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?
5940 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.94
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?$10.00Mar 19, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$21.00Mar 19, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?$20.00Mar 19, 15:14 UTC
- REDEEMTrail Blazers vs. Nets$3.72Mar 17, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMWarriors vs. Wizards$21.88Mar 17, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMLakers vs. Rockets$46.50Mar 17, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Rockets$4.59Mar 17, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela$7.17Mar 17, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYMagic vs. Hawks$20.00Mar 17, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela$8.20Mar 17, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSuns vs. Celtics$3.96Mar 17, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWarriors vs. Wizards$20.00Mar 17, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Rockets$20.00Mar 17, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrail Blazers vs. Nets$3.64Mar 17, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on March 19?$2.24Mar 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrizzlies vs. Bulls$20.00Mar 16, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?$0.14Mar 16, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?$0.92Mar 16, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?$1.19Mar 16, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?$3.70Mar 16, 23:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $10.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 09:23 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 19, 15:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.