Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 73¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $16.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.