Vibrant-Dragonfly
0xa8cc798b4478f2df50aecd51fb0f5dc8de63015b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-146.46
Realised
$68.12
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
642 shares @ 95.1¢·now 91.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$585.17
$-25.68
- NO
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
354 shares @ 94.1¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$330.38
$-3.13
- OVER
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
492 shares @ 46.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 23, 2026$204.22
$-22.14
- NO
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
214 shares @ 94.3¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$204.01
$1.89
- NO
Will Iraq reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
134 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$133.55
$-0.09
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
250 shares @ 37.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.25
$-1.25
- YES
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?
108 shares @ 75.6¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$69.34
$-11.96
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
86 shares @ 81.7¢·now 79.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.24
$-2.02
- NO
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
100 shares @ 58.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$56.49
$-1.51
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
84 shares @ 62.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$53.10
$1.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?$30.00Jun 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$45.81Jun 26, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$92.50Jun 26, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$4.65Jun 26, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$18.18Jun 26, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$28.14Jun 26, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$36.69Jun 26, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$29.19Jun 26, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$27.30Jun 26, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.80Jun 26, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$14.76Jun 26, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$29.40Jun 26, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.28Jun 26, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$27.30Jun 26, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.70Jun 26, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$29.60Jun 26, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$97.72Jun 26, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$97.50Jun 26, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$27.93Jun 26, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$31.29Jun 26, 07:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $54.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 22:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 13:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.