Vibrant-Dragonfly
0xa8cc798b4478f2df50aecd51fb0f5dc8de63015b
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$51.64
Win rate
73%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- OVER
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
492 shares @ 46.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Sep 22, 2026$238.67
$12.30
- NO
Will North Carolina St. Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?
210 shares @ 96.9¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$202.02
$-1.57
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
282 shares @ 50.5¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$201.91
$59.21
- NO
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?
200 shares @ 89.6¢·now 88.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$177.71
$-1.58
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?
139 shares @ 79.8¢·now 84.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$117.62
$6.88
- NO
Will Vanderbilt Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?
120 shares @ 96.8¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$117.00
$0.80
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
397 shares @ 63.5¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$113.14
$-139.18
- NO
Will Colorado have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
130 shares @ 77.9¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2026$100.10
$-1.20
- YES
Will Colorado State have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
110 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2026$93.50
$0.00
- NO
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
2286 shares @ 4.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.57
$-2.08
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Aug 14, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?$182.61Aug 13, 23:48 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$329.01Aug 13, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$104.92Aug 13, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado State have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$93.50Aug 13, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$14.40Aug 13, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$86.90Aug 13, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$203.49Aug 13, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$63.26Aug 13, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$1.80Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$2.03Aug 13, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ohio State have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$36.08Aug 13, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ohio State have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$1.76Aug 13, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maryland have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$55.08Aug 13, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Penn State have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$25.84Aug 13, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$12.00Aug 13, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$4.50Aug 13, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$29.97Aug 13, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$30.45Aug 13, 02:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
33 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $62.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.