Flawless-Turn
0xa937362b23264e9d69a8344c5192b55c89954152
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$858.30
Total PnL
$-466.84
Realised
$-21.49
Win rate
33%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 74.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$28.05
$5.65
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
30 shares @ 45.9¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$26.40
$12.64
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
55 shares @ 51.4¢·now 44.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$24.20
$-4.05
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
30 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$24.15
$0.15
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
40 shares @ 71.3¢·now 58.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.20
$-5.33
- NO
Will a trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day premiere at SDCC 2026?
25 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$22.88
$0.38
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
24 shares @ 87.2¢·now 85.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$20.19
$-0.51
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
20 shares @ 87.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$19.73
$2.23
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
38 shares @ 48.6¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.31
$1.09
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25 shares @ 80.5¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.88
$-1.26
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Jul 16, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$20.19Jul 16, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?$8.31Jul 16, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.60Jul 16, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?$1.60Jul 16, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?$6.32Jul 15, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.40Jul 15, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$6.38Jul 15, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.90Jul 15, 22:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$26.70Jul 15, 21:48 UTC
- REDEEMGuzman vs. Pareja: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5$1.00Jul 15, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$3.30Jul 15, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$10.00Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.80Jul 15, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$6.80Jul 15, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$2.85Jul 15, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$2.49Jul 15, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Golden Dome" at Defense and Innovation Summit?$9.90Jul 15, 20:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
40 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 13:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 01:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.