Crafty-Fridge-Cooking
0xa9ec8922c08a96349f58f9db3c550e6e27c5ac3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$558.48
Total PnL
$16.53
Realised
$-14.14
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
88 shares @ 58.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$87.97
$36.77
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
73 shares @ 72.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.51
$10.65
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
59 shares @ 87.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$58.86
$6.96
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
60 shares @ 86.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.41
$1.51
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
68 shares @ 75.5¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$51.55
$0.41
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
65 shares @ 69.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.43
$-2.27
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat?
41 shares @ 95.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$38.68
$-0.62
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?
43 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$37.00
$-0.64
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat?
39 shares @ 94.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$36.01
$-0.98
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
35 shares @ 76.0¢·now 75.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$26.58
$-0.13
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$56.26Jul 20, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$16.72Jul 19, 23:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $24.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 10:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.