Elementary-Subject
0xaa18e7c2824f2cc2873d572fbf7467973b5b7693
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$10.98
Total PnL
$-884.96
Realised
$6.28
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.69
$0.39
- NO
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
1 shares @ 84.7¢·now 68.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.69
$-0.16
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 29.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.40
$0.10
- YES
Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
1 shares @ 6.0¢·now 21.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.21
$0.15
- YES
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
465 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-334.80
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
164 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-42.64
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?
132 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-54.12
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on November 21 2025?
132 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-104.28
- YES
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?
103 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-77.25
- NO
Will Mike McDaniel be fired by February 28?
80 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-63.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?$18.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$34.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$50.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$81.12May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$231.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$239.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?$356.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?$811.00May 8, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLVentuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$2.73Apr 21, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?$54.00Feb 9, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLEdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?$5.22Feb 8, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$7.80Feb 8, 18:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?$13.65Feb 8, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$167.58Feb 8, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$160.85Feb 8, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$274.77Jan 11, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.08Jan 11, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$378.81Jan 11, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$53.13Jan 11, 11:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $124.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 20:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 07:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".