Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $23.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution. A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution. Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify. This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.