Adept-Loafer
0xaa4046f1599c66fedd95e4860fba7220a7eb4629
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.45
Total PnL
$-892.98
Realised
$22.85
Win rate
60%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?
55 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.88
$-0.82
- NO
Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?
146 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.57
$-8.04
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 14?
54 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 14?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 13?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
30 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-28.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 12?
29 shares @ 34.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 14?
27 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 1PM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?$4.90Jul 24, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?$5.10Jul 24, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$2.00Jul 24, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?$14.61Jul 24, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?$0.72Jul 24, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$5.00Jul 24, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?$3.76Jul 24, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?$4.94Jul 24, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?$11.90Jul 24, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?$7.76Jul 24, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?$8.37Jul 24, 00:02 UTC
- REWARD$8.34Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?$0.70Jul 23, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?$0.72Jul 23, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in July?$7.75Jul 23, 09:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in July?$2.77Jul 23, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in July?$11.84Jul 23, 08:50 UTC
- REWARD$13.44Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in July?$3.52Jul 22, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$0.62Jul 22, 16:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $7.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 19:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 05:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.