Starry-Collectivization
0xaa4abfc01446f52179e053e7e3583de450b2ad2f
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.46
Total PnL
$-259.58
Realised
$-2.42
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 6.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.63
$1.63
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
46 shares @ 4.3¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.46
$-0.54
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.24
$0.24
- YES
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.10
$0.10
- YES
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$1.05Jul 15, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 14?$12.50Jul 15, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2026-07-14?$1.05Jul 14, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 14, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kuopion PS vs. FK Vardar Skopje end in a draw?$1.05Jul 14, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 14, 16:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 03:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 06:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.