Ragged-Degree
0xab7265c3932b786bc0cf102f04e1af9818dab70d
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$339.93
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$-151.76
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1075 shares @ 9.3¢·now 16.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$173.66
$73.66
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1667 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$89.17
$-10.83
- YES
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1250 shares @ 1.6¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$29.38
$9.38
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1435 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$16.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
769 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.15
$1.15
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
789 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.87
$-5.13
- YES
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by less than 10%?
325 shares @ 15.3¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$4.71
$-45.15
- YES
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%?
250 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.50
$-70.84
- YES
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
4105 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-441.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 1, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $138.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 14:36 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.