Gray-Cicada
0xabe3c809ca0f9d14fa5d8b8f46c74ca95fefe2b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$5.34
Total PnL
$-564.51
Realised
$34.92
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
60 shares @ 22.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$-8.80
- YES
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
130 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.84
$-0.20
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
500 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-128.90
- YES
Netanyahu out by June 30?
400 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-42.00
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?
300 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-54.40
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?
293 shares @ 71.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-209.67
- YES
Will Solana reach $150 in March?
200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?
196 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-21.02
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?
115 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.99
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
100 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.55
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $54.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 10:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.