Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$243.50
Liquidity
$14.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $14.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 134.8h
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 5¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 5¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 5¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 5¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 5¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 6¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 6¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 6¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 6¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month prior to the contract month, consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=ngd, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://pythdata.app/explore
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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