Smoggy-Span
0xac02f2784396e01e8985a1ee93119d449e9c99c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-209.17
Realised
$-84.72
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 17?
176 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5?
167 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 28?
142 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 23?
117 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.75
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 21?
97 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 3?
96 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-25.77
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21?
75 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.32
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 21?
74 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30?
74 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.31
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 25?
72 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 25?$67.45Jul 25, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 25?$65.76Jul 24, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 3?$54.66Jul 3, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 3?$51.49Jul 2, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 28?$1.98Jun 27, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5?$1.25Jun 4, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?$66.13May 22, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?$30.57May 21, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?$18.64May 21, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?$12.95May 21, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 17?$2.26May 16, 19:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 13?$59.29May 13, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 13?$57.63May 13, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 24?$0.00May 1, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 28?$1.83Apr 28, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27?$2.97Apr 27, 05:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?$24.92Apr 22, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?$26.23Apr 22, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?$15.60Apr 14, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?$15.60Apr 14, 06:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $22.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 00:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 16:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.