Modest-Encirclement
0xac20ddd194e31f9528def22f6019f1e30101a68a
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-11.3K
Realised
$-438.54
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- NO
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
20000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?
11347 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-659.99
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?
5952 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-599.99
- NO
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
4545 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?
3304 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-400.00
- YES
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18?
2774 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?
2174 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
1857 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-18.57
- YES
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
1251 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-700.00
- YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?
1250 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austria win on 2026-06-22?$16.04Jun 22, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.81Jun 22, 16:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $207.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 12:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.