Kind-Bear
0xac8951549ec9d971af848d38a342c96cc975ba4c
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$4.55
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-3.92
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
4 shares @ 78.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.95
$0.83
- NO
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.60
$-0.23
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 3AM ET
1190 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-595.00
- SOUTH CAROLINA STATE BULLDOGS
North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)
726 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-609.84
- NO
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 16 - 22 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
520 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-353.60
- YES
Will Trump say "IVF" during Women's History Month event?
302 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-123.82
- NO
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?
39 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.67
- YES
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?
4 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNorth Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)$609.84Mar 16, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$338.25Mar 16, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$346.50Mar 12, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "IVF" during Women's History Month event?$123.82Mar 12, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$58.65Mar 12, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$278.80Mar 12, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLRemote IPO before 2027?$29.75Mar 10, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLRemote IPO before 2027?$345.10Mar 10, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$28.82Mar 10, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYRemote IPO before 2027?$370.44Mar 7, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$325.54Mar 6, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$34.06Mar 6, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?$0.45Mar 4, 09:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?$31.00Mar 4, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$204.00Feb 28, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$338.64Feb 28, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLAvatar 4 greenlit by March 31?$12.65Feb 28, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLAvatar 4 greenlit by March 31?$144.67Feb 28, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYAvatar 4 greenlit by March 31?$81.77Feb 27, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYAvatar 4 greenlit by March 31?$7.15Feb 27, 23:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $164.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 18, 04:37 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 16, 20:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".