Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$187.42
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Wide spread — 47.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 30¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (47.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).