Natural-Hemp
0xac8e6fddfa9d56db839f37d6d3c4582c2d43e2cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
197
Open notional
$171.86
Total PnL
$-529.50
Realised
$-15.38
Win rate
17%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 197- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
52 shares @ 79.9¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$41.86
$0.03
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
39 shares @ 76.1¢·now 76.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$29.65
$-0.04
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
115 shares @ 19.5¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$22.25
$-0.22
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
71 shares @ 31.2¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$21.90
$-0.24
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
21 shares @ 86.8¢·now 86.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$18.21
$-0.01
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 11.7¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.65
$-0.04
- NO
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
16 shares @ 70.3¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$10.24
$-1.02
- NO
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
6 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.47
$0.03
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 87.2¢·now 87.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.39
$0.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.52
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$10.00Jul 29, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$9.27Jul 29, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.95Jul 29, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.55Jul 29, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.23Jul 29, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$0.27Jul 29, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.50Jul 29, 22:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $3.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 21:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 22:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.