Naive-Milk
0xac98f190cd71df47ef0115a7bcada30c3e245bc5
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$2.96
Total PnL
$-95.12
Realised
$-0.76
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
9 shares @ 34.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will the US strike Iraq next?
854 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December?
392 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.78
- YES
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September?
50 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-3.50
- NO
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3?
50 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- NO
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?
40 shares @ 54.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-21.94
- YES
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?
24 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?
23 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
22 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.15
- YES
Will Taylor Swift say "Sabrina" or "Carpenter" during Tonight Show on October 6?
20 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.94
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$106.25Jul 18, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$19.90Jul 18, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers$2.01Jul 18, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$39.96Jul 18, 04:18 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers$3.86Jul 18, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?$3.10Jul 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers$3.09Jul 18, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$27.60Jul 18, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$6.10Jul 17, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$10.18Jul 17, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$5.09Jul 17, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$34.71Jul 16, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$107.30Jun 22, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$40.07Jun 22, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$63.62Jun 22, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$20.06Jun 4, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$20.00Jun 3, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?$0.00Apr 22, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?$0.00Apr 22, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?$5.00Apr 22, 07:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $10.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 25, 18:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 05:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.