Tough-Mask
0xad529df14c293d77984a0137990a1441b25211ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$10.5K
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$3.7K
Win rate
79%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
10000 shares @ 12.8¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.3K
$64.99
- YES
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
2035 shares @ 25.2¢·now 50.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$504.46
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
5761 shares @ 15.2¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$950.58
$74.43
- YES
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
2420 shares @ 18.8¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$580.72
$126.27
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
3752 shares @ 12.1¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$431.49
$-23.10
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
5555 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$416.60
$-195.50
- NO
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
422 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$377.69
$6.33
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
422 shares @ 87.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$373.47
$4.89
- YES
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
921 shares @ 54.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$363.92
$-133.58
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
7276 shares @ 6.1¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$360.17
$-82.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Israel" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$35.42Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$22.20Jul 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$197.58Jul 28, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$194.81Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$78.40Jul 28, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$268.01Jul 28, 16:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$44.63Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.1KJul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$162.08Jul 28, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$258.00Jul 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$138.85Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$172.00Jul 28, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$172.00Jul 28, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$511.91Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$170.00Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$20.33Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.25Jul 28, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$166.65Jul 28, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$31.38Jul 28, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$101.40Jul 28, 14:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
61 closed markets, 79% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $177.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 21:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.