Pastel-Inflation
0xadb60a1a1ad865befc9de93643eed3be61705875
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$326.99
Total PnL
$3.5K
Realised
$4.3K
Win rate
13%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
145 shares @ 6.9¢·now 13.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.78
$9.78
- YES
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.00
$7.00
- YES
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $85 in August?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$15.50
$5.50
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
65 shares @ 15.3¢·now 22.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.79
$4.89
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$13.90
$3.90
- YES
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $460 in August?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$13.50
$3.50
- YES
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$13.00
$3.00
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$12.30
$2.30
- YES
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$12.00
$2.00
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
61 shares @ 16.5¢·now 17.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.58
$0.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in August?$0.02Aug 17, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August?$9.11Aug 17, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?$0.01Aug 17, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August?$1.00Aug 17, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August?$0.89Aug 17, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?$10.00Aug 17, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $460 in August?$9.85Aug 17, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in August?$0.06Aug 17, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 17, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?$0.01Aug 17, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$2.88Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.20Aug 17, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?$0.16Aug 17, 02:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?$1.03Aug 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$5.00Aug 16, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.92Aug 16, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $50 in August?$2.09Aug 16, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in August?$10.00Aug 16, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?$6.85Aug 16, 08:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
45 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 18:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.