Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$15.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5453h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5453.0h
- 18:58SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5453h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: +3.5pp at 2d ago (to 18¢).
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · highfederalreserve.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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