Tepid-Signup
0xadb94e81425e9ab411fb119b9c2d5c8486cc9edd
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.77
Total PnL
$-197.38
Realised
$7.88
Win rate
6%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
23 shares @ 21.8¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.77
$-4.23
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
530 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-87.94
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
159 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?
132 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.22
- YES
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
130 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.38
- YES
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?
111 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
93 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?
88 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- HANWHA LIFE ESPORTS
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.06Jul 18, 21:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$23.44Jul 11, 20:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 8, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $29.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 10:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.