Downright-Surgery
0xadbaebb0de3d6e0610f6a668a4b986f94f34979e
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
42
Open notional
$39.01
Total PnL
$-39.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
11 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.11
$0.11
- NO
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.00
$0.25
- NO
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?
3 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$3.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?
3 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
2 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$2.02
$0.02
- NO
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.19
$0.19
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?
1 shares @ 95.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.04
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?$1.00Nov 26, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.00Nov 22, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?$1.00Nov 19, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.00Nov 18, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end November 12-15?$1.01Nov 17, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$1.00Nov 17, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 12-15?$1.00Nov 13, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?$1.00Nov 12, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?$1.00Nov 12, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?$1.00Nov 11, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?$1.00Nov 10, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?$1.00Nov 8, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?$1.00Nov 5, 02:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani be deported before November?$1.00Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?$1.01Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $130k in October?$1.01Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?$1.01Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMNext French confidence vote passes?$1.01Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill exactly 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?$1.01Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?$1.02Nov 5, 02:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $556.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 13, 12:28 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 26, 07:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.