Favorable-Moody
0xadc89d88dbd6408abfa3b765a63c0a6460b804ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
151
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-128.88
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 151- YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
6627 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.92
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
6098 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-34.15
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
6000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 27?
4450 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.45
- NO
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
2310 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.31
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
1445 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1190 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.38
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-3.00
- IDAHO VANDALS
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$4.50May 27, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$4.54May 23, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$3.47May 14, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$2.68May 14, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$3.14May 10, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$5.06Apr 30, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1.58Apr 28, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMSidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner$10.58Apr 20, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner$6.58Apr 14, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$6.58Apr 14, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?$4.26Apr 7, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYConnecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines$10.00Apr 6, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.00Apr 5, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$5.00Apr 2, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation?$2.00Apr 1, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation?$4.00Apr 1, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation?$3.00Apr 1, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation?$7.00Apr 1, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?$7.00Apr 1, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$5.00Mar 31, 06:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $7.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 06:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 27, 02:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".