Austere-Vivo
0xadcdc1705d441664bb55aebb44b1ebd6b05687a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$8.85
Total PnL
$-136.95
Realised
$100.19
Win rate
7%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
104 shares @ 24.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.85
$-16.15
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
120 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?
73 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
57 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
56 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026?
51 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
50 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
49 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 30?
47 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$59.98Jul 31, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampere: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Guido Justo$10.31Jul 23, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYODI Series Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, Women: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan$10.24Jul 23, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Horb: Neus Torner Sensano vs Maria Toma$15.50Jul 22, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech$15.40Jul 22, 09:03 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$47.62Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$15.22Jul 18, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-18?$15.32Jul 18, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$10.33Jul 12, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?$10.35Jul 12, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?$48.29Jul 11, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$10.21Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?$1.03Jul 4, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$10.22Jul 4, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$43.44Jul 4, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$45.45Jul 4, 01:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?$39.96Jul 3, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$5.13Jul 3, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?$10.22Jul 3, 18:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$19.22Jul 2, 21:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $13.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 06:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 18:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.