Confused-Eyrie
0xade68da44321770e2c8e1543c637ed19d03a63cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
6
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-22.3K
Realised
$-4.7K
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- OVER
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
20760 shares @ 37.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.8K
- NO
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
11878 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.2K
- UNDER
Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5
4953 shares @ 55.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.7K
- YES
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?
1036 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-414.33
- OVER
Perth Glory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5
1029 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-241.90
- YES
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?
419 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-180.00
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.02Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$11.96Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.17Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$7.51Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.86Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.95Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-29?$183.08Jun 29, 17:44 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.92Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?$421.79Jun 28, 19:54 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.99Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.44Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.51Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.19Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$7.09Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$9.96Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.23Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.78Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$13.40Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.92Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.49Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $262.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 16:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.