Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Probability
55¢
1h
-5.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$3.5M
Liquidity
$64.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 55¢; -5.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Heavy volume on this book — 54.4× turnover
$3.5M traded against $64.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 3
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 54.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 4
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 5
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:46SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 54.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 14:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 14:46PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 55¢
- 14:15ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 1h ago
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 59¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 59¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 61¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 59¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 61¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
3- BUYYES4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25, 2026 If FC Barcelona wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.laliga.com/News consensus
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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