Vague-Methane
0xae1d7b41489a4694671bc486d817409826a550e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$13.9K
Total PnL
$556.29
Realised
$526.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
10425 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.7K
$54.79
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
5910 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$5.1K
$-29.55
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
150 shares @ 14.0¢·now 18.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$27.23
$6.22
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
120 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$19.98
$-0.42
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 92.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.04
$-0.03
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 shares @ 4.8¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.73
$-0.67
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.85
$-0.15
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.96May 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.94May 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$12.06May 17, 15:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.95May 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.95May 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.94May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.94May 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.94May 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.94May 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.96May 11, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$1.3KMay 10, 01:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.96May 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.97May 9, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$0.99May 8, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$50.57May 8, 03:34 UTC
- YIELD$1.06May 8, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$110.12May 7, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$15.35May 7, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.5KMay 7, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$3.7KMay 7, 11:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $617.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".