Horrible-Snarl
0xae306b992120031eec74e5d2dbbb87040831e371
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$653.23
Total PnL
$76.37
Realised
$30.96
Win rate
52%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- NO
Will 130 to 159 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
64 shares @ 62.6¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$62.30
$22.26
- NO
Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
65 shares @ 76.8¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$57.88
$7.93
- NO
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
42 shares @ 76.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$41.27
$9.62
- NO
Will 190 to 219 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
41 shares @ 66.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$39.62
$12.66
- NO
Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
40 shares @ 66.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$38.76
$12.36
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026?
35 shares @ 66.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$34.88
$11.78
- NO
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026?
35 shares @ 66.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$34.84
$11.74
- NO
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026?
35 shares @ 70.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$34.76
$10.26
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026?
35 shares @ 66.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$34.48
$11.38
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?
35 shares @ 65.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$34.27
$11.52
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill 56 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$15.00Aug 8, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill 55 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$7.55Aug 8, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$5.99Aug 1, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$25.00Jul 31, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$10.00Jul 31, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Justin Tootla be eliminated from Top Chef: Season 23 this week?$14.99Jul 22, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 4.0% in June?$20.00Jul 14, 14:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.9% in June?$27.00Jul 14, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.8% in June?$15.11Jul 14, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$23.58Jul 1, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill London have between 70-80mm of precipitation in June?$5.00Jul 1, 16:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $150 in June?$5.00Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ninjas in Pyjamas make a roster change before July?$6.63Jun 30, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Epic Games have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?$13.55Jun 30, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?$30.00Jun 30, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?$35.00Jun 30, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?$5.00Jun 30, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$4.00Jun 29, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$6.49Jun 29, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$19.60Jun 29, 16:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $17.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 19:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 12:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.