Will Justin Tootla be eliminated from Top Chef: Season 23 this week?
Probability
55¢
1h
-3.9pp
24h
-27.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.48
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 28pp over 24h
Now 55¢; -3.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 90.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:25SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 55¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 58¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 58¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 55¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 55¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 54¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 53¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 53¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.1pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.6pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.8pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.9pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.6pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.2pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.5pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.5pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.0pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 68¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed contestant is eliminated from Top Chef: Season 23 during the episode scheduled to release April 20, 2026 9:30PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" If the relevant episode of Top Chef is not aired by the date of this show's next scheduled release, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Evacuations, medical disqualifications, or voluntary or involuntary forfeitures not as a result of formal elimination will not qualify towards the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the relevant episode of Top Chef.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (90.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).