Scornful-Amnesty
0xae86d64da4a769580a07c92de0cb1020f5abfba3
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$151.82
Total PnL
$-170.23
Realised
$3.14
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
57 shares @ 73.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$46.11
$4.11
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
56 shares @ 80.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.60
$-1.41
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
58 shares @ 72.8¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$43.00
$1.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
24 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$19.11
$0.11
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
105 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
95 shares @ 29.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.00
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
59 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?
51 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?
44 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17?
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$45.36Jul 3, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in July 2026?$18.00Jul 3, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$24.00Jul 3, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?$0.27Jul 3, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$25.12Jul 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$41.80Jul 2, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$48.51Jul 2, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$28.71Jul 1, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in July 2026?$24.00Jul 1, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$24.20Jul 1, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$23.20Jul 1, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.04Jul 1, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$18.00Jul 1, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$41.97Jul 1, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$22.38Jul 1, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$21.67Jul 1, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$32.00Jun 30, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$15.00Jun 30, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$32.00Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$28.58Jun 30, 09:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $17.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 09:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 03:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.