Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Probability
27¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$16.26
Liquidity
$29.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 27¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.1h
- 12:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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