Unfolded-Underclothes
0xae8d4181fc4ff40640007484fd0188cae6e0fa5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$394.22
Total PnL
$25.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
70 shares @ 53.6¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.84
$8.35
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.75
$1.25
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
60 shares @ 82.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.70
$-4.50
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
50 shares @ 64.4¢·now 76.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.25
$6.05
- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: July
40 shares @ 80.2¢·now 76.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$30.49
$-1.56
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
33 shares @ 94.0¢·now 90.4¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$30.13
$-1.20
- NO
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 31.1¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$26.50
$10.95
- NO
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$19.10
$0.70
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$17.80
$1.60
- NO
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
20 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.60
$-0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$16.40Jul 25, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIran Nuke before 2027?$45.74Jul 25, 03:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.83Jul 24, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$28.50Jul 24, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$8.18Jul 24, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$14.48Jul 24, 15:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.17Jul 23, 07:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 22, 19:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$0.00Jul 22, 19:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$0.00Jul 22, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$3.67Jul 22, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$15.31Jul 22, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$4.25Jul 22, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$8.82Jul 22, 14:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $11.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 13:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.