Quarterly-Dueling-Stage
0xae95eb473a11a8e1629f6e151298c821c693a424
Wallet digest
Activity score
28/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$18.22
Total PnL
$-102.23
Realised
$-3.45
Win rate
0%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
66 shares @ 15.1¢·now 20.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.61
$3.61
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.17
$-2.83
- YES
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
1171 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50?
385 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 20?
364 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
298 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Solana reach $90 on May 20?
257 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.