Muffled-Likelihood
0xaec2925ddd2cd8f3b3f40486a63ba1d940b07bbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$52.40
Total PnL
$5.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
73 shares @ 27.5¢·now 26.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$19.53
$-0.47
- NO
Will William Saliba score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.88
$-0.12
- NO
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13 shares @ 32.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.25
$1.25
- NO
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8 shares @ 25.2¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.93
$2.93
- NO
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.92
$2.92
- YES
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
294 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.56
$-0.44
- YES
Will Harry Kane score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7 shares @ 45.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$2.33
$-0.67
- NO
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$24.60Jun 14, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.05Jun 12, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$5.15Jun 12, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.04Jun 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$20.43Jun 12, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$20.11Jun 12, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.08Jun 12, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.02Jun 12, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.04Jun 12, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Saliba score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.04Jun 12, 07:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $7.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 07:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 06:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.