Dead-Conformation
0xaf0bd73132f50e28ac4c183e1e7fda2d65c6422d
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$334.02
Total PnL
$-54.98
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
77 shares @ 64.6¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$53.78
$3.78
- YES
Kash Patel out by June 30?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.50
$1.50
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
98 shares @ 41.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.68
$-7.32
- NO
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?
65 shares @ 31.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$29.03
$9.03
- NO
Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?
63 shares @ 32.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$20.63
$0.63
- YES
Kash Patel out by May 31?
95 shares @ 21.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by May 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 51.1¢·now 50.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$19.57
$-0.43
- YES
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at The Villages on May 1?
51 shares @ 58.4¢·now 38.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$19.53
$-10.47
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
95 shares @ 21.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.52
$-0.48
- NO
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?
37 shares @ 80.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp May 1, 2026$17.63
$-12.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026?$9.1119h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?$30.4519h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by May 31, 2026?$20.3919h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?$30.2319h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at The Villages on May 1?$30.5019h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?$20.1519h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?$10.2519h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?$20.5519h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?$20.5419h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$20.7019h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$40.0019h ago
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by June 30?$40.9619h ago
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by May 31?$20.6319h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$50.7119h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$20.0019h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$10.3919h ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $24.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 19h ago
- Last active
- 19h ago
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".