0xaf34ffd45bc33e6f3ba8c05eeef3178b7db3bff4
0xaf34ffd45bc33e6f3ba8c05eeef3178b7db3bff4
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$5.02
Total PnL
$-58.34
Realised
$-1.94
Win rate
0%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.42
$1.43
- YES
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?
13 shares @ 12.0¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.60
$-0.90
- DOWN
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29?
115 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
80 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?
75 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 25?
30 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24?
20 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?
19 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25?
19 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?$1.53Jun 30, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29?$1.56Jun 29, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$1.54Jun 29, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?$1.25Jun 29, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$1.50Jun 29, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$1.46Jun 29, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$1.50Jun 29, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 26?$1.55Jun 26, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$1.52Jun 26, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$1.50Jun 26, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$1.50Jun 26, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$7.84Jun 25, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.50Jun 20, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.50Jun 20, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$1.50Jun 20, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$1.50Jun 20, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.50Jun 20, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20?$1.59Jun 20, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.50Jun 20, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$6.82Jun 20, 15:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 01:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 14:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.