Harsh-Polarisation
0xaf4ceb2723e90bd073d27243893d14cd51eed5db
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$12.91
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- NO
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?
520 shares @ 81.3¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$434.20
$11.40
- YES
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?
426 shares @ 46.9¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$283.44
$83.37
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
200 shares @ 80.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$173.00
$13.00
- YES
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2?
405 shares @ 26.3¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$123.43
$17.13
- YES
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
282 shares @ 53.5¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$119.85
$-31.14
- YES
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
545 shares @ 13.2¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$95.37
$23.58
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?
100 shares @ 94.8¢·now 93.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$93.90
$-0.90
- NO
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?
92 shares @ 94.4¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$87.40
$0.31
- NO
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?
45 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.88
$0.23
- YES
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
49 shares @ 71.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.63
$-14.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2?$94.00Jun 13, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$5.25Jun 13, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$1.75Jun 13, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$2.80Jun 13, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$1.66Jun 13, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?$95.00Jun 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$76.06Jun 13, 12:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?$505.00Jun 12, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$1.2KJun 12, 22:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2?$7.54Jun 8, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$4.84Jun 8, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$19.35Jun 8, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$77.39Jun 8, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$96.73Jun 8, 09:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $69.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 13:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 15:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.