Polished-Sorbet
0xaf5119a24781cdd4070a9b1d79bfc19344b40f7c
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$1.70
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-5.91
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
379 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.70
$-47.30
- NO
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
5048 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-395.98
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
1313 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-266.39
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
891 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-98.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?
674 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?
335 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Israel strikes Iran before September?
232 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
229 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-44.75
- YES
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$5.00Apr 7, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$5.00Apr 7, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$4.00Apr 7, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$34.43Mar 27, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$40.00Mar 18, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$7.00Mar 18, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$25.00Mar 15, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$24.54Mar 15, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$50.00Mar 15, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$50.71Mar 15, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$11.00Mar 15, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$15.00Mar 13, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$10.00Mar 13, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$25.00Mar 13, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$18.00Mar 13, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$6.52Mar 12, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$21.08Mar 12, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 12, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$15.00Mar 11, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$50.00Mar 11, 14:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $23.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 29, 09:56 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 7, 13:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.