0xaf633e882eba3e645a52d22b079fa2c01fefccd9
0xaf633e882eba3e645a52d22b079fa2c01fefccd9
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$16.93
Total PnL
$-13.03
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 shares @ 98.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$3.13
$-0.06
- OVER
France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5
3 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.6¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$3.09
$-0.01
- YES
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.66
$-0.76
- NO
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.55
$0.02
- NO
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
4 shares @ 69.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.40
$-0.58
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.84
$-0.44
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
2 shares @ 74.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.27
$-0.21
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.09
- YES
Belgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.41
- YES
Exact Score: Olympic Dcheira 0 - 3 OC Safi?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$2.44Jul 12, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: O/U 0.5$3.11Jul 12, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$2.45Jul 12, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win the World Cup?$2.93Jul 12, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$2.89Jul 12, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMHarry Kane: 1+ shots$2.60Jul 12, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$1.87Jul 12, 00:27 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: O/U 0.5$2.65Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMJude Bellingham: 1+ shots$2.66Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: O/U 0.5$2.51Jul 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYJude Bellingham: 1+ shots$2.43Jul 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYHarry Kane: 1+ shots$2.48Jul 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the World Cup?$2.79Jul 11, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Belgium?$2.62Jul 10, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5$2.89Jul 10, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Belgium?$2.43Jul 10, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5$2.72Jul 10, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$2.27Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $2.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 23:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 04:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.