Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
35¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
-12.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 35¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2338h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2338.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2338h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 34¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 36¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 34¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 35¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 37¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 37¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 35¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 35¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 40¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 43¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 44¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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