Showy-Softball
0xaf9df473c3687eec1ee19ced486a2545dd507071
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$129.99
Total PnL
$-139.11
Realised
$-48.86
Win rate
50%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
37 shares @ 88.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$37.00
$4.14
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
23 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$23.00
$0.55
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?
15 shares @ 43.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$15.00
$8.53
- NO
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
9 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$9.00
$5.49
- NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 56.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.00
$3.51
- SYRACUSE ORANGE
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
8 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$8.00
$4.08
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.00
$3.85
- YES
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
4 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.00
$1.48
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
4 shares @ 33.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.00
$2.67
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 14 be greater than 1,900,000?
4 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$4.00
$2.76
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$1.43Jan 16, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,500,000?$3.05Jan 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,500,000?$7.93Jan 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$15.39Jan 16, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$5.27Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$7.99Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$2.04Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$17.22Jan 16, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,500,000?$3.42Jan 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill André Ventura win the first round by less than 2%?$25.11Jan 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?$4.64Jan 15, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$2.59Jan 15, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$4.07Jan 15, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$13.77Jan 15, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?$3.76Jan 15, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the first round by less than 2%?$25.42Jan 15, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$12.92Jan 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$10.53Jan 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$2.09Jan 15, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?$7.56Jan 15, 22:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 21:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.