Broken-Mitten
0xafb59a5e5eacf09b40ae0c725361661915a26d0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-227.87
Realised
$-9.67
Win rate
2%
199 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
400 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27?
204 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.06Jul 13, 09:57 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.24Jul 13, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.89Jul 13, 09:40 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.96Jul 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.12Jul 13, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$0.00Jul 13, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.06Jul 13, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.05Jul 13, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.03Jul 12, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.03Jul 12, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.03Jul 12, 08:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 199 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
199 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 09:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 199 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.