Drab-Heaven
0xaff389b0c6e066057c44c25fae7277880b276ecc
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.6K
Total PnL
$-39.4K
Realised
$-18.2K
Win rate
19%
125 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
966 shares @ 93.2¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$919.38
$19.06
- NO
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
1024 shares @ 33.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$824.57
$483.62
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1324 shares @ 48.2¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$747.75
$110.23
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1244 shares @ 51.9¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$690.49
$45.16
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
776 shares @ 78.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$679.10
$73.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
595 shares @ 77.5¢·now 76.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$454.90
$-6.51
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
422 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$413.29
$0.21
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
358 shares @ 88.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$331.26
$15.68
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
288 shares @ 67.4¢·now 82.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$238.68
$44.39
- NO
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
246 shares @ 92.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$232.02
$5.24
Recent activity
- TRADESELLCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$48.73Jul 28, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Team Comanche (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group A$30.91Jul 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Team Comanche (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group A$10.24Jul 28, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Team Comanche (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group A$10.24Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Team Comanche (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group A$10.24Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Team Comanche (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group A$9.22Jul 28, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$69.14Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$6.01Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 29?$4.74Jul 28, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 29?$5.16Jul 28, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 29?$154.81Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 29?$179.99Jul 28, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid win on 2026-07-28?$65.88Jul 28, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.77Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.00Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.61Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.98Jul 28, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.77Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.00Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Waystar (WAY) beat quarterly earnings?$6.22Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 125 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
125 closed markets, 19% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $23.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 125 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.