Miniature-Buggy
0xb0f84fde723798548ae69b918e57af479b36539c
Wallet digest
Activity score
28/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-499.48
Realised
$-9.15
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
20466 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-34.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
6010 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.29
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1042 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-103.19
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
797 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
187 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States?
113 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-7.90
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States?$8.12Jun 25, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 United States?$3.71Jun 25, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 United States?$6.96Jun 25, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?$86.35Jun 25, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?$103.99Jun 25, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?$6.31Jun 25, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?$3.00Jun 25, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany?$6.42Jun 25, 18:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $20.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 11:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.