Aching-Pea
0xb10c8bc867e36bee44eff84f263cba7cfa016d2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$5.8K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-8.77
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
5116 shares @ 93.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.1K
$347.38
- YES
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?
659 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$658.86
$35.38
- NO
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026?
46 shares @ 74.0¢·now 72.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$33.32
$-0.88
- NO
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
10 shares @ 60.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.95
$2.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?
1116 shares @ 86.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-969.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8?
656 shares @ 98.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-645.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?
631 shares @ 89.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-565.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 3?
579 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-19.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10?
249 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-14.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 3?
239 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-28.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)$100.60Jun 15, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$129.99May 12, 10:52 UTC
- MERGEWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$556.50May 12, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$14.16May 12, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$269.82May 12, 10:50 UTC
- MERGEWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$955.25May 12, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$211.47May 12, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$121.90May 12, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$89.17May 12, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$1.99May 12, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$2.56May 12, 10:48 UTC
- MERGEWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$20.28May 12, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$4.67May 12, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$8.08May 12, 10:43 UTC
- MERGEWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$1.0KMay 12, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$326.67May 12, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$8.89May 12, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$8.30May 12, 10:40 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.03May 10, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$130.18May 9, 11:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
9/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $241.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 23:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 03:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.