Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $24.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.