Tame-Fireplace
0xb275fe2210a084dd4a66cfd2c91402b1244e28b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
42400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-99.09
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
6604 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 30?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?
2400 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-161.80
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
2200 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-101.20
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?
1470 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?
1335 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-53.05
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
1078 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-491.20
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
831 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-194.93
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.89Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$313.50Jul 22, 22:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $388.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 21:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.