Giving-Oven
0xb2bf75d18519369f20c64e995d6670fce70cf5ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
50%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
46883 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$914.23
$-398.74
- YES
US military draft authorized in 2026?
3975 shares @ 8.4¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.81
$-142.54
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3600 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$37.80
$-5.40
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 23.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$23.45
$15.45
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
141 shares @ 10.2¢·now 12.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.23
$2.83
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
3142 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-15.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
2296 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-21.44
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
1496 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-46.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $5.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.