Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian
0xb2e42d29690b7b63335a03c0fd5e64df0681b7f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$469.52
Total PnL
$-0.81
Realised
$590.72
Win rate
84%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- NO
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
222 shares @ 85.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$200.92
$10.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 10?
44 shares @ 73.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$43.98
$11.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 10?
30 shares @ 0.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$25.79
$25.79
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 10?
29 shares @ 92.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$24.46
$-2.49
- YES
Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
20 shares @ 0.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$19.91
$19.91
- NO
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
26 shares @ 0.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$16.57
$16.57
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
588 shares @ 1.4¢·now 2.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$13.22
$4.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 10?
12 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$11.82
$-0.10
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.46
$-0.50
- NO
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title?
16 shares @ 79.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$11.24
$-1.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 10?$6.69Aug 10, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 10?$5.00Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 10?$0.18Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 10?$0.63Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 10?$20.35Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 10?$33.85Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 10?$34.69Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 10?$11.83Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 10?$9.90Aug 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 10?$3.60Aug 10, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?$3.30Aug 10, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 10?$4.32Aug 10, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?$3.56Aug 10, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 10?$7.98Aug 10, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 10?$0.02Aug 10, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 10?$6.31Aug 10, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 10?$0.87Aug 10, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?$1.53Aug 10, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on August 10?$5.10Aug 10, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 10?$4.49Aug 10, 05:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 05:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 05:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.