Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian
0xb2e42d29690b7b63335a03c0fd5e64df0681b7f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$434.96
Total PnL
$-374.23
Realised
$1.9K
Win rate
97%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
99 shares @ 0.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$70.60
$70.60
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26?
53 shares @ 9.1¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$51.95
$47.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 26?
52 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$50.77
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26?
105 shares @ 44.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$44.60
$-1.57
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
588 shares @ 0.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$44.10
$44.10
- NO
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
57 shares @ 0.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$42.47
$42.47
- NO
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
37 shares @ 76.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$36.32
$7.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26?
91 shares @ 38.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$27.86
$-6.85
- NO
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
27 shares @ 85.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.54
$0.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26?
105 shares @ 12.7¢·now 12.7¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$13.28
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 26?$51.05Jun 26, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26?$8.69Jun 26, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26?$1.67Jun 26, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26?$10.99Jun 26, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26?$2.15Jun 26, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26?$4.04Jun 26, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 26?$0.28Jun 26, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26?$0.06Jun 26, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26?$36.46Jun 26, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26?$0.10Jun 26, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26?$8.01Jun 26, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 26?$4.99Jun 26, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$10.69Jun 26, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$16.94Jun 26, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26?$8.99Jun 26, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26?$0.22Jun 26, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26?$1.97Jun 26, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26?$0.73Jun 26, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26?$6.00Jun 26, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26?$0.11Jun 26, 04:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
32 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $19.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 04:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 04:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.